Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market

Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election?

Mark Carney

78%

Pierre Poilievre

22%

$70m Vol.

Who will be the next Pope?

Pietro Parolin

28%

Luis Antonio Tagle

20%

Matteo Zuppi

13%

Peter Turkson

12%

Péter Erdő

Pierbattista Pizzaballa

Robert Sarah

Wim Eijk

Raymond Burke

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu

Mario Grech

Jean-Marc Aveline

Robert Francis Prevost

Jose Tolentino de Mendonca

No new Pope in 2025

Baldassare Reina

Charles Maung Bo

Malcolm Ranjith

Francis Arinze

<1%

Angelo Scola

<1%

Mark Ouellet

<1%

$9m Vol.

US recession in 2025?

54%

chance

$3m Vol.

Fed decision in May?

50+ bps decrease

25 bps decrease

10%

No change

90%

25+ bps increase

$28m Vol.

monthly

Will India invade Pakistan before July?

18%

chance

$91k Vol.

Next Government of Canada

Liberal Majority

57%

Liberal Minority

22%

Conservative Majority

Conservative Minority

14%

Other

<1%

$7m Vol.

Canada Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?

Liberals 150+

Liberals 125–149

Liberals 100–124

Liberals 75–99

14%

Liberals 50–74

30%

Liberals 25–49

22%

Liberals 1–24

10%

Conservatives 0–24 (Tie)

10%

Conservatives 25–49

Conservatives 50+

Other

<1%

$5m Vol.

Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election?

Liberal Party

71%

Conservative Party

30%

Bloc Québécois

<1%

New Democratic Party

<1%

Green Party

<1%

People's Party

<1%

Other

<1%

$4m Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

40%

chance

$9m Vol.

Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in 2025?

13%

chance

$570k Vol.

US-China trade deal before June?

30%

chance

$596k Vol.

Will Trump lower tariffs on China by...?

April 30

10%

May 31

71%

July 31

86%

$256k Vol.

India military action against Pakistan before June?

62%

chance

$218k Vol.

Elon out of Trump administration before July?

38%

chance

$963k Vol.

Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May?

chance

$103k Vol.

What continent will next Pope be from?

Europe

54%

Asia

22%

Africa

19%

North America

South America

Oceania

No New Pope in 2025

$1m Vol.

Next president of South Korea?

Lee Jae-myung

78%

Han Duck-soo

Han Dong-hoon

Lee Jun-seok

Hong Joon-pyo

Kim Moon-soo

Ahn Cheol-soo

Yoon Suk Yeol

<1%

Yoo Seong-min

<1%

Lee Nak-yon

<1%

Kim Kyoung-soo

<1%

Kim Dong-yeon

<1%

Oh Se-hoon

<1%

Kim Boo-kyum

<1%

Na Kyung-won

<1%

Won Hee-ryong

<1%

Cho Kuk

<1%

$38m Vol.

Which countries will the U.S. agree to trade deals with before July?

India

73%

Japan

73%

Israel

73%

Vietnam

68%

South Korea

68%

United Kingdom

61%

Argentina

55%

European Union

51%

Australia

42%

Canada

41%

Mexico

40%

China

39%

Brazil

34%

Germany

20%

France

17%

$2m Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?

27%

chance

$749k Vol.

NBA Champion

Oklahoma City Thunder

36%

Boston Celtics

29%

Cleveland Cavaliers

14%

Golden State Warriors

LA Clippers

Los Angeles Lakers

Minnesota Timberwolves

New York Knicks

Denver Nuggets

Houston Rockets

Indiana Pacers

Milwaukee Bucks

Detroit Pistons

<1%

Orlando Magic

<1%

Miami Heat

<1%

$2b Vol.

Which party wins most seats in Prince Edward Island?

Liberal Party

92%

Conservative Party

New Democratic Party

<1%

Other

<1%

$10m Vol.

Which party wins most seats in Alberta?

Conservative Party

100%

Liberal Party

<1%

Bloc Québécois

<1%

New Democratic Party

<1%

Green Party

<1%

People's Party

<1%

Other

<1%

$2m Vol.

(Old) Romania Election

Other (incl. Georgescu)

100%

Nicolae Ciucă

<1%

Mircea Geoană

<1%

Marcel Ciolacu

<1%

George Simion

<1%

Elena Lasconi

<1%

$361m Vol.

F1 Drivers Champion

Oscar Piastri

45%

Lando Norris

30%

Max Verstappen

20%

George Russell

Charles Leclerc

Lewis Hamilton

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

<1%

Esteban Ocon

<1%

Alexander Albon

<1%

Liam Lawson

<1%

Fernando Alonso

<1%

Lance Stroll

<1%

Pierre Gasly

<1%

Jack Doohan

<1%

Oliver Bearman

<1%

Yuki Tsunoda

<1%

Isack Hadjar

<1%

Carlos Sainz Jr.

<1%

Nico Hülkenberg

<1%

Gabriel Bortoleto

<1%

$15m Vol.

Eurovision Winner 2025

Sweden

51%

Austria

17%

France

Netherlands

Israel

Finland

Czechia

Estonia

Belgium

Albania

Ukraine

Cyprus

Malta

Italy

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Armenia

<1%

Australia

<1%

Croatia

<1%

Germany

<1%

Greece

<1%

Iceland

<1%

Ireland

<1%

Lithuania

<1%

Norway

<1%

Poland

<1%

Portugal

<1%

San Marino

<1%

Spain

<1%

Azerbaijan

<1%

Denmark

<1%

Georgia

<1%

Latvia

<1%

Luxembourg

<1%

Montenegro

<1%

Serbia

<1%

Slovenia

<1%

$58m Vol.

What price will Bitcoin hit in April?

$200k

<1%

$150k

<1%

$120k

<1%

$110k

$100k

10%

$70k

$60k

<1%

$50k

<1%

$40k

<1%

$24m Vol.

monthly

Elon Musk # of tweets April 25- May 2?

<100

<1%

100–124

<1%

125–149

150–174

175–199

15%

200–224

18%

225–249

18%

250–274

17%

275–299

12%

300–324

325–349

350–374

375–399

400+

$747k Vol.

weekly

Liberals win majority in Canadian election?

56%

chance

$2m Vol.

Bitcoin Up or Down on April 27?

14%

$475k Vol.

daily

Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?

chance

$4m Vol.

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

chance

$18m Vol.

NBA Eastern Conference Champion

Boston Celtics

56%

Cleveland Cavaliers

35%

New York Knicks

Indiana Pacers

Milwaukee Bucks

Detroit Pistons

Orlando Magic

<1%

Miami Heat

<1%

$284m Vol.

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