Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market

Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election?

Mark Carney

80%

Pierre Poilievre

20%

$58m Vol.

Who will be the next Pope?

Pietro Parolin

27%

Luis Antonio Tagle

25%

Matteo Zuppi

10%

Péter Erdő

Pierbattista Pizzaballa

Peter Turkson

Robert Sarah

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu

Jean-Marc Aveline

Mario Grech

Raymond Burke

Charles Maung Bo

Jose Tolentino de Mendonca

Robert Francis Prevost

Wim Eijk

Malcolm Ranjith

Angelo Scola

No new Pope in 2025

<1%

Mark Ouellet

<1%

Francis Arinze

<1%

Baldassare Reina

<1%

$4m Vol.

US recession in 2025?

53%

chance

$3m Vol.

Next president of South Korea?

Lee Jae-myung

79%

Hong Joon-pyo

Lee Jun-seok

Han Dong-hoon

Han Duck-soo

Kim Moon-soo

Ahn Cheol-soo

Yoon Suk Yeol

<1%

Kim Dong-yeon

<1%

Kim Kyoung-soo

<1%

Lee Nak-yon

<1%

Yoo Seong-min

<1%

Oh Se-hoon

<1%

Kim Boo-kyum

<1%

Na Kyung-won

<1%

Won Hee-ryong

<1%

Cho Kuk

<1%

$32m Vol.

Fed decision in May?

50+ bps decrease

25 bps decrease

No change

92%

25+ bps increase

$26m Vol.

monthly

Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in 2025?

13%

chance

$534k Vol.

Will Trump lower tariffs on China by...?

April 30

20%

May 31

70%

July 31

79%

$185k Vol.

What continent will next Pope be from?

Europe

59%

Asia

24%

Africa

12%

North America

South America

No New Pope in 2025

Oceania

<1%

$978k Vol.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers

10%

Twolves

$1m Vol.

daily

Which countries will the U.S. agree to trade deals with before July?

Vietnam

77%

Japan

76%

India

75%

Israel

73%

United Kingdom

66%

Argentina

63%

South Korea

63%

European Union

54%

Canada

48%

Mexico

47%

Brazil

44%

China

41%

Australia

34%

Germany

26%

France

25%

$1m Vol.

Sperm Race: Tristan (USC) vs Asher (UCLA)

50%

Tristan (USC)

$128k Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?

31%

chance

$583k Vol.

Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?

40%

chance

$195k Vol.

NBA Champion

Oklahoma City Thunder

37%

Boston Celtics

30%

Cleveland Cavaliers

13%

Los Angeles Lakers

Golden State Warriors

LA Clippers

New York Knicks

Denver Nuggets

Minnesota Timberwolves

Indiana Pacers

Houston Rockets

Milwaukee Bucks

Detroit Pistons

<1%

Orlando Magic

<1%

Memphis Grizzlies

<1%

Miami Heat

<1%

$2b Vol.

US-China trade deal before June?

34%

chance

$482k Vol.

Elon out of Trump administration before July?

40%

chance

$896k Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Australia?

Anthony Albanese

83%

Peter Dutton

16%

Jim Chalmers

<1%

Tanya Plibersek

<1%

$3m Vol.

Which company has best AI model end of April?

Google

76%

OpenAI

23%

xAI

DeepSeek

Meta

<1%

Alibaba

<1%

Anthropic

<1%

$3m Vol.

monthly

GPT-5 released by…?

April 30

May 31

June 30

23%

July 31

56%

December 31

92%

$527k Vol.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

12%

1 (25 bps)

12%

2 (50 bps)

19%

3 (75 bps)

20%

4 (100 bps)

16%

5 (125 bps)

6 (150 bps)

7 (175 bps)

8 or more (200+ bps)

$6m Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

35%

chance

$8m Vol.

(Old) Romania Election

Other (incl. Georgescu)

99%

Nicolae Ciucă

<1%

Elena Lasconi

<1%

Mircea Geoană

<1%

Marcel Ciolacu

<1%

George Simion

<1%

$322m Vol.

Which party wins most seats in New Brunswick?

Liberal Party

94%

Conservative Party

Other

<1%

New Democratic Party

<1%

Green Party

<1%

$10m Vol.

What price will Bitcoin hit in April?

$200k

<1%

$150k

<1%

$120k

$110k

$100k

26%

$95k

65%

$70k

$60k

$50k

<1%

$40k

<1%

$19m Vol.

monthly

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

<1%

chance

$55m Vol.

zerohedge

Eurovision Winner 2025

Sweden

46%

Austria

17%

France

Netherlands

Israel

Czechia

Finland

Estonia

Ukraine

Belgium

Albania

Malta

United Kingdom

Cyprus

Italy

San Marino

<1%

Switzerland

<1%

Armenia

<1%

Australia

<1%

Croatia

<1%

Germany

<1%

Greece

<1%

Iceland

<1%

Ireland

<1%

Lithuania

<1%

Norway

<1%

Poland

<1%

Portugal

<1%

Spain

<1%

Azerbaijan

<1%

Denmark

<1%

Georgia

<1%

Latvia

<1%

Luxembourg

<1%

Montenegro

<1%

Serbia

<1%

Slovenia

<1%

$55m Vol.

Bitcoin price on April 25?

>89k

82%

87-89k

11%

85-87k

83-85k

81-83k

79-81k

<1%

<79k

$2m Vol.

weekly

What price will Ethereum hit in April?

$8000

<1%

$6000

<1%

$5000

<1%

$4000

<1%

$3500

<1%

$3000

<1%

$2600

$2400

$2200

$2000

26%

$1200

$1000

$11m Vol.

monthly

Largest company end of April?

Apple

96%

NVIDIA

Microsoft

Amazon

<1%

Google

<1%

$3m Vol.

monthly

F1 Drivers Champion

Oscar Piastri

45%

Lando Norris

31%

Max Verstappen

19%

George Russell

Charles Leclerc

Lewis Hamilton

<1%

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

<1%

Esteban Ocon

<1%

Alexander Albon

<1%

Liam Lawson

<1%

Fernando Alonso

<1%

Lance Stroll

<1%

Pierre Gasly

<1%

Jack Doohan

<1%

Oliver Bearman

<1%

Yuki Tsunoda

<1%

Isack Hadjar

<1%

Carlos Sainz Jr.

<1%

Nico Hülkenberg

<1%

Gabriel Bortoleto

<1%

$13m Vol.

Elon Musk # of tweets April 18-25?

100–124

<1%

125–149

150–174

26%

175–199

38%

200–224

24%

225–249

250–274

275–299

300–324

325–349

<1%

350–374

<1%

375–399

<1%

400+

<1%

$2m Vol.

weekly

What price will Solana hit in April?

$300

<1%

$250

<1%

$210

$190

$170

28%

$80

$4m Vol.

monthly

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